Horses

SMP Week #3 Bet Selections

Gulfstream Park, Race 8
Grade 2 Davona Dale Stakes (3yo fillies)
8 furlongs, dirt

#6 Puca (10-1)
$20 Win/Place
Gulfstream Park, Race 11
Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes
8.5 furlongs, Dirt

#4 Itsaknockout (4-1)
$20 Win/Place
Fairgrounds, Race 10
Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra Stakes (3yo fillies)
8.5 furlongs, Dirt

#7 Freudie Anne (8-1)
$20 Win/Place
Fairgrounds, Race 11
Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes
8.5 furlongs, Dirt

#3 Bluff (12-1)
$20 Win/Place

By |February 21st, 2015|Horses|0 Comments|

Looking for the Class Leader

Last year around this time a 3-year-old colt named Class Leader won a Fairgrounds Maiden Special Weight race. The final time for his graduation at 1 mile and 70 yards was 1:43.1. Why is that number significant? Can you use it as a reliable indicator for evaluating Risen Star Stakes and Fountain of Youth […]

Saturday Morning Post Betting Results

TOTAL BETS SINCE WEEK 1
This is the Results blog for selections listed in the Saturday Morning Post (SMP) column. Bets fall into one of two categories:

Low-priced overlays (nonfavorites at odds between 2-1 and 5-1)
Longshots (odds of 6-1 and higher)

TOTAL OF 56 BETS (28 selections win/place)
TOTAL WAGERED = $1,120
TOTAL RETURNED = $869

WIN = 17% (5 for […]

By |February 21st, 2015|Horses|0 Comments|

SMP #1. Feb. 7, 2015

Let’s talk longshots.
Mark Cramer, a master at picking longshots, once published a study that showed legitimate longshots (horses running at 8-1 or higher) finished 2nd twice as often as they won. On some days I’d swear that they run 2nd 10 times more often than they win.
I recommend a bankroll-saving and sanity-enhancing place bet accompany all […]

By |February 7th, 2015|Horses|0 Comments|

Baffert Boards the Lazy Train

Dortmund and the Curse of “Keen to Lead”

In The Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby I coin the phrase keen to lead (KTL) to describe runners incapable of relaxing early. The concept expands the typical need to lead (NTL) designation to include horses positioned 2nd or 3rd early in the race but who, […]

Botching the Belmont?

Knowing when to jump off a bandwagon is as important as knowing when to jump on. However, even when I click on the fabulous new Windows Hindsight Magnifier 1.0, I can’t kick myself too hard for nibbling at a few California Chrome exactas in the Belmont Stakes. The performance-related factors in his favor far outweighed the factors […]

2014 Belmont Stat Blast #1: Past 15 Triple Crown Candidates

Comedian Chris Rock once joked about the low-budget, indie film The Blair Witch Project. “People keep telling me they made it for $100,000. ‘You gotta see it. It’s amazing, and it only cost them $100,000 to make it!’ So I went to see it. Man, I tell ya, somebody’s walking around with $90,000 in their […]

2014 Belmont Stakes: Chrome’s Competition (or Lack Thereof)

Last winter California Chrome fooled me. His victories in races restricted to California state-breds featured pace and final times far inferior to pace and final figures of top stakes horses. That’s pretty much what you’d expect from a winner of restricted minor stakes. So despite his trouncing of those rivals, I saw him as […]

2014 Preakness: The Match Race That Wasn’t!

The headline reads: “Untapable to Challenge California Chrome in Preakness!” Only in our dreams, racing fans! Only in our wildest dreams. Untapable heads for the Acorn Stakes at Belmont, while California Chrome invades Crimea…errr…marches into Maryland for the Preakness.

From the LazyBettor’s perspective, a duel between the two impressive 3-year-olds held the potential to create […]

Kentucky Derby: Of Rabbits and Roses

On Wednesday night, I started to write my Kentucky Derby analysis for this site. It centered on Bob Baffert’s likely use of Chitu as a rabbit for Hoppertunity. With Chitu blasting from the starting gate and other speedsters (including the likely favorite California Chrome) forced to overexert themselves to keep up, Hoppertunity’s task of […]