Betting Square?

The LazyLine picks were a perfect 2 for 2 last week, and both bets rang up at our maximum of 4 units. With 29 winning units vs. 28 losing ones, we stand at the gate to Profitdom once again. This week, however, we saw slim pickings in terms of possible 4-unit wagers. So we decided to eat a dangerous extra half point in New England for our only play. Let’s hope that half point ends up tasting more like chowder than crow.

Dolphins at Patriots
Official Line: Patriots –7.5
LazyLine: Patriots –13. Patriots are a 4-unit play.

Pro bettors (“sharps”) avoid giving key half points, like the difference here between 7 and 7.5. Amateur bettors (“squares”) fail to appreciate the distinction and pile onto what they perceive as the “best” team regardless of the line. Call us what you will, but we’re siding with the squares here.

The Pats lost badly in Miami earlier in the year, but things have changed considerably. For starters, the Dolphins list three linebackers as “doubtful” on their Friday injury report and show a defensive tackle as out. And this Dolphin defense has sagged badly vs. the run recently. New injuries weaken them further.

So let’s give the Patriots 5 points for home advantage and another 3 or 4 for the injury situation. Add points for advantages in coaching and at QB, some extra motivation to avenge that earlier loss (Belichik is 11-1 vs. the spread in that scenario), and turnovers…then subtract any small advantages Miami might have. We think our –13 LazyLine is conservative. And it demonstrates that Pats backers enjoy a huge margin of error that should land them safely on the right side of the 7.5-point line.

Lazy Line results for the year: 13 wins and 17 losses against the spread, with 29 winning units vs. 28 losing units. Using $100 units, that’s $2,900 in wins and $3,080 in losses.)