Cashing on True Contenders

A few weeks ago, after a string of losing weeks, we focused on games in which the LazyLine differed hugely from the original line. We referred to this as “wide-berth betting” and wagered our maximum bet of 4 units on such games. Most often, top playoff teams qualify as wide-berth bets, which adds to the reliability of this approach.

Since sticking with these select 4-unit bets, we’ve notched 4 wide-berth wins and lost only 1 such wager. That moves us into the profit zone for the year. It also brings us to 7-1 with 4-unit bets in the past two seasons.

This week we arrive late to the dance in terms of recognizing the Ravens as one of the top 3 or 4 teams in the NFL. But the LazyLine suggests a lot more bettors will be arriving even later than us.

Ravens at Texans
Official Line: Ravens –4
LazyLine: Ravens –10. Ravens are a 4-unit play.

Single-digit spreads on likely Super Bowl teams are hard to find this time of year. But here we find a very favorable proposition: a top-4 team facing a QB who failed to make the depth chart in St. Louis. The Texans snatched Case Keenum off the Rams’ practice squad because he’s familiar with the Texans offense. Consider that. They chose him not because they believe Keenum is good, but because they still have a name tag lying around from his old locker.

As the Texans desperately search for an NFL-caliber QB, the Ravens gain momentum. Increased QB pressure by the Ravens defensive line has shielded weaknesses and injuries in the secondary. Now the secondary gets further relief by facing a minor-league QB. On offense, Joe Flacco is enjoying his finest year, with the run game and pass blocking adding quality support.

The Texans defense might keep this game tight for a while, but the talent level and turnover battle will eventually swing many more points onto the Ravens side of the scoreboard.

Lazy Line results for the year: 14 wins and 17 losses against the spread, with 33 winning units vs. 28 losing units. Using $100 units, that’s $3,300 in wins and $3,080 in losses.)