Our “Hail Mary” Toss

Just like last year, we enter the conference championship round showing a flat-bet loss on our selections. Just like last year we’ll bank on a team grossly undervalued in the betting line to save our bacon.

Colts at Patriots
Official Line: Patriots –6.5
Lazy Line: Patriots –13. The Patriots are a 4-unit play.

The betting public is obsessed with Andrew Luck. And that’s keeping this pointspread in the bettable range.

The Patriots hold all the aces here, except for Luck. While blowing out the Colts in the past 3 meetings, the Patriots rushed for over 200 yards per game. The Colts have no choice but to prepare all week to stop the run. That opens opportunities for Brady in the passing game, especially with the Colts’ top cornerback Vontae Davis battling a knee injury.

Although we respect the Colts’ coaching staff, Belichick deals from a stacked deck here, with more options and more time to scheme off of an already effective strategy. Toss in the home edge and a deeper roster, and we’ll look for the Pats to beat the Colts once again by a TD or more.

Packers at Seahawks
Official Line: Seahawks –7.5
Lazy Line: Seahawks –10. No play.

If Aaron Rodgers is as limited as he was last week by his calf injury, this game will be a blowout. If he’s a bit more mobile, that extra half point in the official line could add up to trouble for Seahawks’ bettors.

Both teams feature top QBs and excellent coaching staffs, so the injury to Rodgers is key to the outcome here. On the other side of the ball, Seattle needs CB Byron Maxwell to be healthy. The somewhat scattershot arm of Cam Newton exploited his replacement last week, and Rodgers will do an even better job of it than Cam if Maxwell leaves the contest at any time.

Seattle put our finances in order last year, and we’d love to go back to the well here.  The Seahawks own a great overall record against the spread at home, but bettors don’t cash as reliably when the ‘Hawks are favored by more than 7. So we’ll play it safe, assume Rodgers plays at near 100%, and look forward to watching a truly topnotch playoff contest with no money on the line.

LazyLine results for the year: 14 wins and 19 losses against the spread, with 33 winning units vs. 36 losing units. Using $100 units, that’s $3,300 in wins and $3,960 in losses.