Last week the Vikings laid wood to the Seahawks, but failed to nail the final field goal. Their effort was good enough to wipe out my slim profit for the year, though. This week I go back to one of the most reliable bets in the NFL over the past 4 seasons: the Seahawks getting points (19-5 against the spread).

Seahawks at Panthers
Vegas Line: Panthers -2.5 points
Lazy Line: Seahawks -4 points. Seahawks are a 4-unit play.

Analysis: Although I worry a bit about the physical toll last week’s match with the Vikings took on them, the Seahawks stand out as the value here. Statistically speaking, they are better than the Panthers on defense and special teams. The offensive stats look similar between the two teams, but once you factor in strength of schedule, the edge on offense goes to the Seahawks too.

Added to those impressive advantages is the 3-1 record the Wilson-led Seahawks compiled against the Newton-led Panthers over the past 4 years. Or you could say the 3-1 record Pete Carroll owns against the Ron Rivera Panthers.

On the injury front, the Seahawks get the edge too. When the Panthers lost both starting cornerbacks late in the season, their defense got lit up by Eli Manning and Drew Brees. Their only loss came in that stretch at the hands of an unusually effective Matt Ryan. They now face a quarterback better than any of those three. Although the Seahawks find themselves short at the running back position, Wilson will likely pick up the slack a bit, as will an overperforming offensive line.

Season Totals (assuming $100 units): Corrected: 10 wins, 9 losses. 18 winning units, 18 losing units. Loss of $80

Roger LeBlanc