Assuming $100 units, the Lazy Line bets show a very slim profit of $310 for the year. This year’s Lazy Line Super Bowl analysis tells me it’s a good time to go all in.

Falcons vs. Patriots
Vegas Line: Patriots –3 points
Lazy Line: Patriots –10 points. Patriots are a 3-unit play.

Backing the better defense in recent Super Bowls has proven to be profitable. A debate raged through the playoffs this year about whether the Patriots deserved to be the #1 defense in points allowed (because of the weak QBs they had faced). This week accolades are pouring in for the young and improving Falcons defense that recently shut down both Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers.

Are these defenses really rather even? Don’t you believe it.

Any debates about defensive superiority should have ended with the Patriots shutting down the explosive, talented and playoff-savvy Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship. Like the Falcons, the Steelers offense featured an experienced QB, a dynamic running game and multiple big-play weapons in the passing game. The Steelers were finally healthy and on a roll. The Patriots defense stopped Steelers stars, almost literally, in their tracks.

Rather than stoking a debate and muddying the waters about this year’s defenses, “experts” should be pointing to defense as the clear separating factor in this game. The Patriots defense is talented, experienced and accomplished. And it’s probably the best-coached unit in the NFL. Like the Belichick defense that shut down “The Greatest Show on Turf” Rams in Tom Brady’s first Super Bowl, this defense thrives on masterful team play rather than star names and highlight-reel acrobatics.

On the other sideline the Falcons must find ways to live with a defense that can’t stop the run. Against the Seahawks and Packers, they built big leads that forced their opponents to abandon the run. That’s unlikely to happen against the Patriots.

I also see a greater level of perfection on offense for the Patriots. Tom Brady spotted the NFL’s other QBs 4 games and still landed in the top 5 for the year in most passing categories. And although Matt Ryan appears to be the lead candidate for the MVP award, some cracks in his game appeared last week against the weary and wounded Packers defense.

In that game, Ryan faced absolutely zero pass-rush pressure while playing with a big lead on his home field. Yet he still managed to throw at least two passes that should have been intercepted. Excusable? Consider that the last time the Falcons faced a halfway decent defense, at home vs. the Chiefs, Ryan threw a Pick-2 on a 2-point conversion attempt that lost the game for the Falcons.

I suspect the Patriots will win the turnover battle and win the game by a much wider margin than the official spread suggests. I’ll attempt to double my season’s profits of $310 by betting New England for 3 units.