By our reckoning, Pools 1 and 2 churned up just one value play. We grabbed Noble Moon in Pool 1 at 63-1. He is 1 of just 7 horses from Pool 1 who remain on the Pool 3 list. A few horses just missed our value point in Pool 2, including Bobby’s Kitten who drops off the Pool 3 list. In short, we kept our powder dry, so we’re ready to fire some big shots if we sight generous odds.

Cairo Prince is our top Derby prospect, but we won’t pull the trigger at paltry early-season odds of 13-1.

Of the listed horses, General A Rod catches our eye at 37-1. His sharp 2nd-place finish in the Fountain of Youth makes him a top 10 contender, but he’s 16th choice currently in this pool. Wildcat Red, who defeated him in that race, probably should be lower than 29-1, but the margin of error here is slimmer. We’ll bet the General for twice as much as we placed on Noble Moon in Pool 1.

The All Other option sometimes offers value in this pool, as bettors gain familiarity with many of the 23 listed horses and eschew the buckshot approach. This year, however, the offer is just 2-1 (vs. a morning line of 6-1). We see only 6 horses as highly unlikely to fill a stall in the Derby starting gate. We see no reason to shoot at this small and unrewarding target, leaving General A Rod as our only play.

—LazyBettor.com Crew