Betting

The San Felipe: Three Eights Will Beat Baffert’s Pair of Aces

Bob Baffert’s Dortmund is joined by stablemate Lord Nelson in the San Felipe Stakes. Both colts are multiple stakes winners already and regarded as a tough pair to top this Saturday.
Prior to the RB Lewis Stakes, Dortmund looked like the 3-year-old to beat on the West Coast. His inability to relax early appeared to be […]

SMP Week #4 Bet Selections

In week #3 of the SMP, one winner emerged from the 4 selected bets. Following a strategy of betting $20 win and place, the return was $178 for $160 wagered. The SMP selections now have 2 winners out of 9 selections the past 3 weeks, for a flat-bet loss.
Here are this week’s picks.

Gulfstream Park, […]

By |February 28th, 2015|Horses|0 Comments|

SMP Week #3 Bet Selections

Gulfstream Park, Race 8
Grade 2 Davona Dale Stakes (3yo fillies)
8 furlongs, dirt

#6 Puca (10-1)
$20 Win/Place
Gulfstream Park, Race 11
Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes
8.5 furlongs, Dirt

#4 Itsaknockout (4-1)
$20 Win/Place
Fairgrounds, Race 10
Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra Stakes (3yo fillies)
8.5 furlongs, Dirt

#7 Freudie Anne (8-1)
$20 Win/Place
Fairgrounds, Race 11
Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes
8.5 furlongs, Dirt

#3 Bluff (12-1)
$20 Win/Place

By |February 21st, 2015|Horses|0 Comments|

Saturday Morning Post Betting Results

TOTAL BETS SINCE WEEK 1
This is the Results blog for selections listed in the Saturday Morning Post (SMP) column. Bets fall into one of two categories:

Low-priced overlays (nonfavorites at odds between 2-1 and 5-1)
Longshots (odds of 6-1 and higher)

TOTAL OF 56 BETS (28 selections win/place)
TOTAL WAGERED = $1,120
TOTAL RETURNED = $869

WIN = 17% (5 for […]

By |February 21st, 2015|Horses|0 Comments|

Baffert Boards the Lazy Train

Dortmund and the Curse of “Keen to Lead”

In The Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby I coin the phrase keen to lead (KTL) to describe runners incapable of relaxing early. The concept expands the typical need to lead (NTL) designation to include horses positioned 2nd or 3rd early in the race but who, […]

Botching the Belmont?

Knowing when to jump off a bandwagon is as important as knowing when to jump on. However, even when I click on the fabulous new Windows Hindsight Magnifier 1.0, I can’t kick myself too hard for nibbling at a few California Chrome exactas in the Belmont Stakes. The performance-related factors in his favor far outweighed the factors […]

2014 Belmont Stakes: Chrome’s Competition (or Lack Thereof)

Last winter California Chrome fooled me. His victories in races restricted to California state-breds featured pace and final times far inferior to pace and final figures of top stakes horses. That’s pretty much what you’d expect from a winner of restricted minor stakes. So despite his trouncing of those rivals, I saw him as […]

2014 Preakness: The Match Race That Wasn’t!

The headline reads: “Untapable to Challenge California Chrome in Preakness!” Only in our dreams, racing fans! Only in our wildest dreams. Untapable heads for the Acorn Stakes at Belmont, while California Chrome invades Crimea…errr…marches into Maryland for the Preakness.

From the LazyBettor’s perspective, a duel between the two impressive 3-year-olds held the potential to create […]

Kentucky Derby: Of Rabbits and Roses

On Wednesday night, I started to write my Kentucky Derby analysis for this site. It centered on Bob Baffert’s likely use of Chitu as a rabbit for Hoppertunity. With Chitu blasting from the starting gate and other speedsters (including the likely favorite California Chrome) forced to overexert themselves to keep up, Hoppertunity’s task of […]

2014 Kentucky Derby Stat Blast #3: Derby Pace

Using a rating system in which 89 and higher is “Fast,” here’s how I rate the top early runners this year. Note that I consider only races at 8.5 furlongs or longer around 2 turns and I adjusted for surface as described in The Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby. (An asterisk indicates a 9-furlong […]