Betting

2014 Kentucky Derby: High-Profile Pretenders

To accessorize my favorite topic, Kentucky Derby pretenders, I’ve created categories named after songs by The Pretenders. Unknowingly back in the early 1980s, lead singer Chrissie Hynde spun a credo gamblers would be wise to follow:
It’s hard to live by rules
I never could, and still never do
To find value, handicappers need to embrace the […]

2014 Prep Race Wrap-Up: Strong But Wrong

U nlike last year, most 2014 Derby prep races at 1-1/8th miles sported final times faster than this decade’s average for each contest. Only the Louisiana Derby and Blue Grass Stakes (won by Vicar’s In Trouble and Dance With Fate, respectively) registered slower-than-average times. Many bettors might conclude from these brisk clockings that a standout 3-year-old champ awaits coronation.

To […]

Kentucky Derby Stat Blast #1

Sometimes truths in a set of stats jump out at you. Other times you need to interpret stats at length before they can help you. Speed figures (adjusted final-time figures) allegedly improve raw times and are considered a necessity. But do these manipulated times really offer a sharper view of reality than unvarnished clockings?

I […]

Prep Race Wrap: Race Riding with Rosie and Johnny V.

Chatter abounds this week about Johnny V’s ride on Wildcat Red. By allowing his horse to drift slightly off the rail exiting the stretch turn, Johnny let Javier Castellano aboard Constitution sneak through on the inside. “Bad ride by Johnny V” seems to be the dominant opinion. I see it more as an exceptional […]

Louisiana Derby: Ending My Holiday Fling

First let me commend the effort by Intense Holiday in the Risen Star Stakes on February 22. Runner-up Albano set a soft early pace in that race and then waltzed through a Dead Easy turn time of :25 flat. He hit the top of the stretch with fresh legs, full lungs and a two-length head start […]

Derby Preps: The Curse of Wildcat Red

Let’s start with the Florida Derby and poor, lil’ Wildcat Red (3-1). He hit the wire first in 5 of 6 lifetime starts and finished 2nd by a head in the other, yet nobody wants to ride him! Johnny V. slides into the saddle as the 5th rider in the past 5 starts. You […]

Derby Preps: Winter Wrap-Up

Snow still covers the racetracks and crab shacks on much of the eastern edge of the Derby trail. Even so, the Kentucky Derby winter prep season is over.
March 1 marks the final Derby prep on Aqueduct’s winter surface, and Gulfstream has run the last of its 8.5-furlong preps. From here on, most horses enter […]

Kentucky Derby Futures Pool #2 Preview

Derby prognosticators…prepare to dance in a minefield. Churchill Downs rolls out its 2nd futures pool this week. About 30% of bets from Pool #1 last November already blew up. And only 9 of the 23 listed horses in Pool #1 show up on the list for Pool #2.

The LazyBettor.com analysis for Pool #1 included […]

NFL Super Bowl: Lazy Line Pick Prevails!

After dancing around the .500 mark all year, the Lazy Line picks ended with a flourish. In nearly omniscient detail (read here), we nailed the winner of the Super Bowl for 4 units. Prior to that we added a bunch of points on our side of the scoreboard with a 4-unit play on the Seahawks over the 49ers.

That […]

NFL: Conference Championship Lazy Line Picks

The Lazy Line picks went 1-1 last week, bringing the totals to 7-8-1 since we started displaying them in Week 13. In terms of betting units, we’ve notched 13 wins vs. 14 losing units. Still in the red.

Patriots at Broncos: Broncos -5.5
Lazy Line: Broncos -6. No play.
Comments: For about the 12th time this year, […]

By |January 18th, 2014|NFL Betting|1 Comment|