Handicapping

Kentucky Derby: Of Rabbits and Roses

On Wednesday night, I started to write my Kentucky Derby analysis for this site. It centered on Bob Baffert’s likely use of Chitu as a rabbit for Hoppertunity. With Chitu blasting from the starting gate and other speedsters (including the likely favorite California Chrome) forced to overexert themselves to keep up, Hoppertunity’s task of […]

2014 Kentucky Derby Stat Blast #3: Derby Pace

Using a rating system in which 89 and higher is “Fast,” here’s how I rate the top early runners this year. Note that I consider only races at 8.5 furlongs or longer around 2 turns and I adjusted for surface as described in The Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby. (An asterisk indicates a 9-furlong […]

2014 Kentucky Derby: High-Profile Pretenders

To accessorize my favorite topic, Kentucky Derby pretenders, I’ve created categories named after songs by The Pretenders. Unknowingly back in the early 1980s, lead singer Chrissie Hynde spun a credo gamblers would be wise to follow:
It’s hard to live by rules
I never could, and still never do
To find value, handicappers need to embrace the […]

Kentucky Derby Futures Pool #2 Preview

Derby prognosticators…prepare to dance in a minefield. Churchill Downs rolls out its 2nd futures pool this week. About 30% of bets from Pool #1 last November already blew up. And only 9 of the 23 listed horses in Pool #1 show up on the list for Pool #2.

The LazyBettor.com analysis for Pool #1 included […]

Kentucky Derby Preps: Cash Call Futurity

Later today Hollywood Park offers the year’s final showcase for top 2-year-olds. Thirteen horses will line up for the Cash Call Futurity at 1-1/16th miles.

Two horses trained by Jerry Hollendorfer will vie for favoritism:

Tamarando (4-1), winner of the Real Quiet Stakes on this track in his most recent outing. He defeated Electric Eddie, who is […]

Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 1

Churchill Downs now offers you the chance to bet the Kentucky Derby very early. Kind of like betting on which immature green fruit will ripen perfectly months from now. Futures Pool #1 lists 23 two-year-old prospects, many of whom have yet to race around two turns. Quite a risky venture.

One aspect of this pool raises […]