22 Oct 2016 NFL Week 7 Bets
My picks went 1-1 last week, with the “Under 47 points” bet hitting in the Cowboys/Packers matchup and the Seahawks failing to cover at home vs. Atlanta. That ruins my perfect record but keeps me well above even. The Lazy Bettor NFL picks stand at 5-1-1 for the year.
My season betting record is now 5-1-1, or +4 units. Assuming $100 units, I’m up $390 for the season.
This week I see two Lazy Line advantages.
NFL Week 7 Lazy Line Bets (2)
Washington at Detroit –2
Lazy Line: Washington –3
My secret is safe for at least another week: the Washington Gruden-ators are very, very good!
Coach Jay Gruden instituted a massive culture change in D.C. last year. He got rid of the rebels, underachievers and whiners and brought in hungry, hard-working players in their place. He helped his own cause by coaching up a good quarterback to greatness instead of having to sell the farm to acquire a great one.
According to standard QB ratings, QBs Kirk Cousins and Matt Stafford both are top 5 QBs since the start of 2015. That’s where the equality reflected in the Vegas line begins and ends.
Stafford must play without his best TE and without a strong running game. Cousins works with a pair of RBs who are quickly emerging as a top 10 backfield combo.
To widen the margin between these teams is the improved Washington defense, which towers over the defense that the Lions field. The Lions defense stands (sits?) as the worst in the NFL in terms of QB rating allowed.
Add it all up and you see a playoff contender visiting a sub .500 team missing some key players. Take the 2 points and Washington for 2 units.
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Seahawks at Cardinals –2
Lazy Line: Seahawks –3
Let’s be generous and give Arizona 4 points for the home edge here. Let’s be equally generous and rate their coaching staff even with Seattle’s.
Now let’s be brutally honest: Carson Palmer’s career is just about over. Coming off a concussion that put him on the sidelines for a week, he suffered a hamstring pull serious enough to hold him out of Thursday’s practice. Prior to these setbacks, Palmer threw 5 INTs in his past 4 games. I’m betting the injuries following those shoddy performances don’t serve as a catalyst for positive change.
Palmer lines up against an aggressive, opportunistic defense. He might be helped by RB David Johnson, but Seattle is unlikely to give up many yards or points on the ground.
The Seahawks also face an aggressive, top-rated defense, but they do so with Russell Wilson who enters the prime of what’s already an amazing career. The Seattle offense is clicking after a rough start to the season. The playbook is just now expanding as the offensive line gets its act together.
Take the 2 points and the Seahawks for 2 units.