Kentucky Derby

2017 Fountain of Youth Stakes (March 4)

Six of 11 entrants are stakes winners, including 4 graded stakes winners. This is what the deep end of the pool looks like! Despite the presence of many certified stakes types, though, only one horse shows the ability to run fast early and late.

The morning-line favorite at 5-2 is #8 Irish War Cry, winner […]

2017 Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 3 Bets (Feb. 24-26)

About a half dozen of the 23 horses separately listed in Pool #3 have yet to make their 2017 stakes debut. Another half dozen made unimpressive 2017 debuts. It seems there’s a lot of dead money in this pool.

The Walking Dead
Classic Empire leads the zombie parade. After showing up at the Holy Bull starting […]

2017 Risen Star Stakes

In last week’s Southwest Stakes, I noted the absence of top-quality graded-stakes efforts among the contenders. As such, my analysis focused on three lightly raced horses. They finished 1st, 2nd and 4th (with my preferred choice 4th). In the Risen Star we might see a similar scenario play out.

The lukewarm favorite likely is Mo […]

2017 Southwest Stakes (February 20)

The race favorite, Uncontested, smashed the stakes-record time for the Smarty Jones Stakes last time out. Throwing a shadow of doubt on the quality of that effort over a sloppy, sealed track is the final time of the 2nd-place finisher, Petrov, which also shattered the old stakes record. And Petrov shattered that record despite […]

2017 Sam Davis Stakes Preview and Bets

A surprisingly talented field lines up for the Grade 3 Sam Davis on Saturday. The qualitative difference among the top 4 or 5 horses seems rather minute. Longshots have a shot here.

McCraken, the likely favorite, won his only try around 2 turns. That was in a Grade 1 stakes as a 2-year-old at Churchill Downs. […]

2017 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (February 4)

The RB Lewis Stakes captures the imagination a little better than the lineup in the Holy Bull. That’s only because the entrants arrive with equally mediocre resumes for a graded stakes contest.

Three of the five entrants own just a single win. Another entrant has no wins at all. And the only multirace winner lost […]

2017 Holy Bull Stakes (February 4)

The winter stakes for 3-year-olds on the Kentucky Derby Trail began with a bang two weeks ago. Multiple stakes winner Gormley battled head to head with Bob Baffert’s American Anthem from start to finish in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. This week’s lineup in the Holy Bull Stakes looks less enticing.

The Sham featured […]

2017 Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 2 Bets (Jan. 27-29)

Long before Churchill Downs concocted its 24-entry futures pools, Las Vegas offered bettors action on any 3-year-old horse they thought might be a Derby winner. Back then, and even now, you can find triple-digit odds in Vegas on horses with reasonable chances to make it to the starting gate in May. The Churchill Downs […]

The $1000 Derby Bankroll: Week 10 Bets

I enter Week 10 with a $15 profit on the bankroll bets and two futures tickets in hand—one on Zulu (33-1; not likely to run in the Kentucky Derby), and one on Outwork (34-1; winner of the Wood Memorial). Week 10 feaures my second prime bet of the Derby prep season.

The Arkansas Derby
Bob Baffert’s Cupid owned the […]

The $1000 Derby Bankroll: Week 9 Bets

I enter Week 9 with a $6 profit on the bankroll and two futures tickets in hand—one on Zulu (33-1; entered in the Blue Grass Stakes this weekend), and one on Outwork (30-1; entered in the Wood Memorial). Week 9 feaures my first prime bet of the Derby prep season and bets on all […]