NFL Action. . .
Value Bets & Lazy Lines

The delayed start to the Lazy Bettor NFL betting season served us well. The Lazy Line analysis and bet of the Seahawks (–2) over the Jets was right on target, and my analysis of the O/U opportunity (betting the under) in the Broncos at Bucs game couldn’t have been more accurate.

Our season betting record is 2-0, or +2 units. Assuming $100 units, I’m up $200 for the season.

This week I see two Lazy Line advantages and one possible O/U play.

NFL Week 5 Lazy Line Bets (2)
Texans at Vikings –6.5
Lazy Line: Vikings –10

Texans QB Osweiler tossed multiple INTs in 3 of 4 starts this year. Even in his “good” outings, his accuracy varies. I expect the Vikings defense to feast on his mistakes.

As for the Vikings offense, QB Sam Bradford performed remarkably well in the past 3 weeks after joining the team just after the preseason ended. His record shows 4 TDs, O INTs and 69% completions. As his familiarity with the playbook and Vikings players increases, so should his point production.

The Vikings own significant advantages in coaching, QB play, defensive play and turnover margin. Give the 6.5 points, and take the Vikings for 1 unit.

Giants at Packers –7
Lazy Line: Packers –10

The Lazy Line sees this game as another blowout scenario. The Packers own significant advantages in coaching, QB-ing, and defense to go with the 4-point home-field advantage. They also come  off a bye week.

The Giants played poorly when losing to the Vikings. Mental errors, sloppy execution and overall mediocrity…the things that cellar-dwellers are made of. And that’s not just a 1-week oddity. The Giants defense is last in the NFL in takeaways and doesn’t have an interception this year. The offense has fallen woefully short of expectations in terms of putting points on the board. The off-field controversies and locker-room bickering are growing.

Give the 7 points, and take the Packers for 1 unit.

NFL Week 5 O/U Speculation
Patriots at Browns, 47 points
Falcons at Broncos, 47 points

With Brady returning to QB for the Pats, fans and bettors expect fireworks on offense. And the Browns offense has been surprisingly adept at scoring this year. Overall a strong case can be made for a high score, but that expectation is fully factored into the 47 total.

A stumble or two by a rusty Brady or a return to past habitual incompetence on offense by the Browns could leave a bettor short of the points needed to cover the Over. I don’t see enough certainty here to back the Over, and I don’t see enough evidence of offensive shortcomings to risk taking the Under.

As for the Falcons/Broncos contest, recall last year’s Super Bowl. The high-scoring Panthers were expected to roll over the Denver defense. Also recall the Panthers vs. Broncos opener earlier this year, which was viewed in the same way. Both times the Broncos defense shut down the well-oiled offense. And this year’s Broncos defense might be even better than last year’s.

This total of 47 assumes the Falcons offense will have continued success. But QB Matt Ryan is infamously inconsistent and seldom plays as well on the road as he does at home. Given Ryan’s resume and the Broncos recent defensive dominance, do you see a big, fat, offensive DISAPPOINTMENT looming for the Falcons? To cement my case for the Under, consider that the Broncos will start either an injured #1 QB or their #2 guy, with either option lowering the expected point total from the Denver offense.

Take the Under 47 points in the Falcons/Broncos clash for 1 unit.

Roger LeBlanc