Two wins last week and one push. That keeps my Lazy Bettor NFL picks perfect for the year.

The Lazy Line of the Vikings at –10 over the Texans proved more correct than the Vegas line of –6.5. The –10 line for the Packers hosting the Giants put us into a betting push, as the game ended right on the Vegas line of –7.

The 2nd Lazy Bettor winning wager came with my comparison call on the Over/Under of 47 for the Pats at Browns and Falcons at Broncos. I surmised that the Broncos game would stay safely under that total, while the Pats/Browns total was less certain. Sure enough the Broncos total stayed low and well under 47, while the Pats/Browns total came in very close to the 47 Vegas line.

My season betting record is now 4-0-1, or +4 units. Assuming $100 units, I’m up $400 for the season.

This week I see one Lazy Line advantage and one possible O/U play.

NFL Week 6 Lazy Line Bet
Falcons at Seahawks –6
Lazy Line: Seahawks –10

Am I going overboard here by projecting the Seahawks to blow out the Falcons? Atlanta enters the arena off of quality wins over last year’s Super Bowl duo, Carolina and Denver. Or were they sneakily cheap victories?

The Panthers clearly lack the quality and depth in the secondary that carried them to the Super Bowl last year. They also suffered losses to key figures in their ground game, most notably RB Jonathan Stewart. In short, the Falcons caught a break vs. the weakened Panthers and lit up the scoreboard.

Next up was a trip to Denver, where the badly depleted Falcons defense faced the Broncos’ six-foot-seven backup QB. They demolished the man with size 16 happy feet in the pocket who, I think, played blindfolded, and they power-ran through the soft middle of the Denver defense. Now they face a healthy, well-coached Seahawks team with a superb QB coming off a bye week.

If you give Seattle a 4-point edge for home field, a few points for being healthier, a few points for overall depth and experience, and maybe a point or two for the extra week to prepare…you get pretty close to a 10 point edge. And that’s even if you rate the battle between the Atlanta offense and Seattle defense as even. Give the 6 points, and take the Seahawks for 1 unit.

NFL Week 6 O/U Speculation
Bengals at Patriots, 47.5 points
Cowboys at Packers, 47.5 points

Much has been written about the correlation between the Cowboys’ success and the softness of their schedule. Not much has been written about the weakness of the running games of Green Bay’s opponents that produced the Packers “awesome” run defense. The Pack stopped the NFL’s 23rd, 27th, 30th and 31st ranked run attacks. Take their defensive accolades with a big grain of salt.

This Packer factoid is significant in assessing the Cowboys’ likely success on offense. If the Cowboys stick with the run, the clock will wind down quickly and the game will stay under 47.5. The Packers haven’t been putting up points as easily as in past years, and many of their top offensive players are banged up. Rodgers is completing fewer long passes, and his scoring drives are taking longer. This puts even more downward pressure on the point total.

In the New England game, you can pencil Brady in for 30 points or so in his homecoming game. But can you pencil the Bengals in for 17 or 18? I consider that a tossup. The Bengals could score 24 or they could score zero. The final total is tougher to predict here. My advice is to stay away from betting the O/U in this game.

Instead, take the Under 47.5 points in the Cowboys/Packers clash for 1 unit.

Roger LeBlanc