Friday Free Picks Bonus: Sunday at Emerald Downs, June 30

A bonus round of free picks! Because I’ll be interviewed on the Emerald Downs “Win Place Show” on KJR-Seattle radio, I’m posting some Sunday picks at Emerald.

These free picks are based on methods in The Punter’s Tale (A Bettor’s Quest for Racetrack Profits). The book defines the false-favorite types and shows how to turn a profit at the races in two steps:

  1. Identify a false favorite by type. (The types are statistically defined in The Punter’s Tale.)
  2. Find two horses to bet against the favorite.

Assuming you’re using a $200 bankroll, bet a total of $20 per race on the two contenders. Dutch the bets so that the payout on each will be about the same regardless of which one wins. If one pick ends up scratched or bet below 2-1, don’t bet on that horse. Bet your other selection to win and place instead.

EMERALD Race 3, Claiming $3,500 N1Y/N4L, 6.5 furlongs, dirt

False favorite: #2 Mike Man’s Bro (9-5), Mustachioed Wife (Category defined in The Punter’s Tale)

Mike Man’s Bro shows four failed attempts to move up from $2,500 bottom-level claimers. Twice he failed while coming off a win. is the fifth try a charm? Don’t bet on it!

BETS: #3 Regazze Cat (6-1), #6 Romeoinbluejeans (5-2)

EMERALD Race10, Claiming $2,5000 (N2L), 8 furlongs, dirt

False favorite: #6 O Rally (5-2), Mustachioed Wife (Category defined in The Punter’s Tale)

O Rally took a nearly 20-month break from racing. His return to action this year has been less than triumphant despite showing up at the bottom claiming level. His second race back at the $4,000 level for nonwinners of two lifetime saw him losing ground in the stretch despite making his run from off the pace. His lack of stretch punch suggests he might not be quite fit enough to handle a return to two turns. Let’s slap a comical mustache on this sketchy gelding and bet against him.

BETS: #3 Look At My Star (3-1), #4 Devil Dog (6-1)

Results for Week 3-A

BELMONT Race 1, Claiming $35k (N3L), 7 furlongs, turf

The legit favorite #5 Codrington was scratched. No bets.

Profit/Loss: $0

BELMONT Race 3, Starter Allowance $50k (N2L), 8.5 furlongs, turf

In this race I tried to stretch the definition of a false favorite beyond the limits defined in The Punter’s Tale. That bad decision cost me $20, as the favorite Uhtred won easily.

Profit/Loss: minus $20.00

BELMONT Race 5, NY state-bred claiming, 6 furlongs, dirt

False favorite:#1 Candid Desire proved to be false indeed. Unfortunately I failed to come up with the longshot winner, as neither Seanow nor Rucksack could get the job done.

Profit/Loss: minus $20.00

Total for week: minus $40

TOTAL FOR ALL WEEKS: minus $17.50

False favorites wagered against: 2 for 5

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