05 Jul Friday Free Picks: July 5, 2019, Belmont and Emerald Downs
The “Friday Free Picks” ended June, on a small number of plays, with a loss of $1.50. I’m confident I can improve on that in July. I’m adding Emerald Downs to the roster to increase the number of plays.
These free picks are based on methods in The Punter’s Tale (A Bettor’s Quest for Racetrack Profits). The book defines the false-favorite types and shows how to turn a profit at the races in two steps:
1. Identify a false favorite by type. (The types are statistically defined in The Punter’s Tale.)
2. Find two horses to bet against the favorite.
Assuming you’re using a $200 bankroll, bet a total of $20 per race on the two contenders. Dutch the bets so that the payout on each will be about the same regardless of which one wins. If one pick ends up scratched or bet below 2-1, don’t bet on that horse. Bet your other selection to win and place instead.
BELMONT Race 4, Claiming $30,000 N2L, 6 furlongs, turf
False favorite: #2 No Mo Promises (3-1), Piper’s Fife (Category defined in The Punter’s Tale)
BETS: #6 Yes And Yes (8-1), #10 Gallant Bid (6-1)
(Bets are for turf only.)
EMERALD DOWNS Race 1, Claiming $2,500 (N1y/N4L), 5.5 furlongs, dirt
False favorite: #2 Tuscan Warrior (5-2), Mustachioed Wife (Category defined in The Punter’s Tale)
BETS: #1 Dallon’s Gold (3-1), #6 Cat’s Gulch (4-1)
EMERALD Race 5, Claiming $4,000 N2L, 6.5 furlongs, dirt
False favorite: #Apphia (5-2), Falling Knife (Category defined in The Punter’s Tale)
BETS: #2 Flat Out Fine (10-1), #7 Red City Zip (8-1)
Results for Week 3-B
EMERALD Race 3, Claiming $3,500 N1Y/N4L, 6.5 furlongs, dirt
My case against legit favorite #2 Mike Man’s Bro proved weak, as he nabbed the win by a head.
Profit/Loss: minus $20
EMERALD Race 10, Claiming $2,5000 (N2L), 8 furlongs, dirt
Morning-line favorite O Rally ended up at 6-1. The actual favorite, #2 Go Bobby Go, was even more clearly false. Either way, the my bet paid off here, with Devil Dog winning and paying $8.00. Look At My Star, the other bet, went off at 8-1, so the Dutch was $14 to win on Devil Dog and $6 to win on Look At My Star.
Profit/Loss: + $36.00
Total for week: +$16
TOTAL FOR ALL WEEKS: minus $1.50
False favorites wagered against: 3 for 7