Friday Free Picks: June 14, 2019, Belmont Park

These free picks are based on methods and research presented in The Punter’s Tale (A Bettor’s Quest for Racetrack Profits). The book shows how to turn a profit in two steps:

`1. Identify a false favorite by type. (False-favorite types are defined statistically.)

2. Find the two most likely horses to pull the upset and bet on both.

Today we find two false favorites in the 9-race card at Belmont Park.

RACE 3, Maiden claimer $30,000, 1 mile, dirt

Favorite Type: Falling Knife (see The Punter’s Tale for details)

Favorite:: #4 Ari’s Naughty Luca, morning line, 1-1

Bets: #3 Unbridled Mesa (m/l 4-1), #6 Inclunation (m/l 9-5)

RACE 7, NY state-bred claimer $40,000, 6.5 furlongs, dirt

Favorite Type: Mustachioed Wife (see The Punter’s Tale for details)

Favorite: #6 Rally Cap, morning line 8-5

Bets: #3 Stink Man (m/l 7-2), #4 Fleet Warrior (m/l 12-1)

As in The Punter’s Tale, the bets are dutched so that the payout will be nearly the same regardless of which horse wins. Using a $200 bankroll as our starting point, wagers will be $20 per race. For example, assuming the odds come up close to the morning line, our bets in Race 3 will be $14 win on #6 Inclunation and $6 win on #3 Unbridled Mesa. In Race 7, the wagers will be $15 win on #3 Stink Man and $5 win on #4 Fleet Warrior.

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