Friday Free Picks: June 28, 2019, Belmont Park

These free picks are based on methods presented in The Punter’s Tale (A Bettor’s Quest for Racetrack Profits). The book defines the false-favorite types and shows how to turn a profit at the races in two steps:

  1. Identify a false favorite by type. (The types are statistically defined in The Punter’s Tale.)
  2. Find two horses to bet against the favorite.

Assuming you’re using a $200 bankroll, bet a total of $20 per race on the two contenders. Dutch the bets so that the payout on each will be about the same regardless of which one wins. If one pick is scratched or ends up at less than 2-1, bet your other selection to win and place instead (with twice as much to place if odds are 4-1 or lower).

BELMONT Race 1, Claiming $35k (N3L), 7 furlongs, turf

Favorite: #5 Codrington (8-5), Legit favorite

This wager is an exception to the steps above. The Punter’s Tale shows legitimate favorites win more than 40% of the time. Because this legitimate morning-line favorite might not be fully embraced by the betting public, you might see odds of 2-1 or higher on her. Take those odds.

BETS: #5 Codrington (2-1 or higher), $8 win/$16 place

BELMONT Race 3, Starter Allowance $50k (N2L), 8.5 furlongs, turf

False favorite: #4 Uhtred (2-1), Mustachioed Wife (see The Punter’s Tale for definition)

BETS: #3 Rucksack (8-1), #9 Seanow (6-1)

BELMONT Race 5, NY state-bred claiming, 6 furlongs, dirt

False favorite: #1 Candid Desire (9-5), Mustachioed Wife (see The Punter’s Tale for definition)

BETS: #3 Blue Bell (3-1), #5 Playthatfunnymusic (9-2)

The first-race and third-race bets are for turf only.

Results for Week 2

BELMONT Race 1, Mcl $25k, 8 furlongs, dirt

False favorite #1 Incredible Miss proved to be legit and defeated the Lazy Bettor alternatives.

Profit/Loss: minus $20.00

BELMONT Race 5, Clm $30kN2l, 8 furlongs, turf

This race was taken off the turf because of rain. I specified that the recommended bets were for turf only. That was too bad because the Lazy Bettor alternative Tappanzee won and paid $9.50.

Profit/Loss: 0.00

Total for week 1: +$42.50

Total for Week 2: minus $20


False favorites wagered against: 1 for 3

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