Kentucky Derby Speed Figures in Review

I published The Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby in November 2013. Since then, I’ve published a Lazy Bettor Kentucky Derby Preview each year. You can read the past years’ previews at for free.

Here’s a summary of how my preview picks, based on the parameters in the book, have fared compared to the speed figures of two major racing publications. The Kentucky Derby finish position of each top horse appears after the horse’s name.

Top Kentucky Derby Speed Figures
(2-turn races only)


Lazy Bettor preview……California Chrome, 1st in Ky. Derby
Beyer speed figures……California Chrome, 1st in Ky. Derby
BRIS speed figures…….California Chrome, 1st in Ky. Derby

Click here for my comments on California Chrome’s final prep effort in the Santa Anita Derby.


Lazy Bettor preview…….American Pharoah, 1st in Ky. Derby
Beyer speed figures……..Materiality, 6th in Ky. Derby
BRIS speed figures………Frosted, 4th in Ky. Derby

Click here for my comments on American Pharaoh’s final prep effort in the Arkansas Derby.


Lazy Bettor preview…….Nyquist, 1st in Ky. Derby
Beyer speed figures……..Exaggerator, 2nd in Ky. Derby
BRIS speed figures………Danzing Candy, 15th in Ky. Derby

The 2016 Derby Preview extols Nyquist’s virtues at length. Click over to for a free look and to purchase The Lazy Bettor’s Guide eBook at 50% off!

While the Lazy Bettor top selection is 3 for 3, the Beyer and BRIS top numbers claim only California Chrome as a winner. If you read the book, which shows 22 years of Kentucky Derby results, you’ll see this approach has worked well for decades. And you’ll find it hard to imagine any other measure could perform better.

My Kentucky Derby Preview will be on sale next week. Check back here or at for this year’s analysis.

Roger LeBlanc
April 22, 2017


  • d altemose
    Posted at 21:29h, 04 May Reply

    i would like to purchase your 2017 review to see if i came up with the same horses as you. It says I must first buy the book. I already have the book. How do i get the review now? thanks.

    • Roger LeBlanc
      Posted at 01:07h, 05 May Reply

      No need to buy the book to get the preview. This hasn’t been a problem yet. Maybe try again?

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