09 Nov LazyLine NFL Week 10 Betting Selections
Wonders of Wide-Berth Betting
Our huge 4-unit score last week pulled the LazyLine bets to within a whisker of even for the year. Since launching public selections in Week 13 last year, the LazyLine has identified 4-unit wagers only 3 times. The record on those wagers is 3-0.
Credit the huge margin of error we uncover for the success of the multi-unit LazyLine bets. Starting today we ignore single-unit plays and share with you only the wide-margin, big-money, ultra-reliable selections.
Cowboys at Jaguars (in London)
Official Line: Cowboys −7.5
Lazy Line: Cowboys −3. Jags are a 2-unit play.
Shhh. Don’t tell a soul, but the Jags own Seattle’s interior defensive line from last year’s Super Bowl. Added to the defensive talent former Seahawk coach Gus Bradley assembled last year, this squad now consistently shuts down offenses. Write off last week’s poor showing vs. the Bengals. The Jags packed for London before heading to Cincinnati and might have been looking past that game. With extra days to prepare for the Cowboys and a newly hatched, topnotch running attack, the Jags might hold QB Bortles’ mistakes to a minimum.
Meanwhile Dallas QB Romo hauls his bad back across several time zones for the pleasure of getting knocked around by an active and effective defense. RB Murray will struggle against the strong Jags front seven. We believe none of these realities is reflected in the line. And us Jag backers might celebrate early if Brandon Weeden needs to relieve Romo.
Titans at Ravens
Official Line: Ravens −10, Over/Under -44
Lazy Line: The Over is a 2-unit play.
How bad does the Ravens defense have to be to get picked apart by Andy Dalton-Knotts? Pretty darn bad. The problem with betting the Titans will repeat that feat lies with Titans QB Zach Mettenberger, who arrives in Baltimore with just one NFL start. Mistakes will be made. But that leads to an interesting alternative to betting on a Titans’ cover.
Titans coach Whisenhunt loves to stretch the field and turns to Mettenberger because of his strong arm. This game figures to feature lots of long ball from Mettenberger and Flacco. The pace will be brisk, the home-loving Ravens will rack up points, and the Titans will provide some fireworks of their own with TDs and maybe a bad INT or three. The Over is a lowly 44, and this scenario looks perfect for betting the Over.
Lazy Line results for the year: 9 wins and 12 losses against the spread, with 15 winning units vs. 16 losing units. (Using $100 as a base betting unit, we have $1500 in wins and $1660 in losses, for a loss of $160.)