12 Sep NFL Week #1: Return of the Lazy Line
The Lazy Line picks rallied from a regular season deficit to come within one play of profitability. The Russell Wilson interception that ended Seattle’s Super Bowl repeat hopes also ended our hopes of logging two consecutive profitable seasons with the Lazy Line picks.
Even though I deplore early-season wagering, I found three plays that qualify in week 1:
Ravens at Broncos
Vegas Line: Broncos -4
Lazy Line: Even………….Bet 1 unit on the Ravens
The Ravens enter the season fully healthy, with great offensive weapons and one of the best offensive lines they’ve ever had. Coach Harbaugh has dominated Coach Kubiak in head-to-head meetings. Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense play the first real game under a new system, so the turnover battle probably goes to the Ravens.
Seahawks at Rams
Vegas Line: Seahawks -4
Lazy Line: Even………….Bet 1 unit on the Rams
The Seahawks strutted through the summer like Super Bowl champs. Except they were Super Bowl losers. Gone is defensive coordinator Quinn, another brilliant cornerback, and center Max Unger. Team leaders spent the past 7 months holding out and squabbling over money. Meanwhile the Rams solidified their roster under the always reliable Jeff Fisher. Look for the Rams to play aggressive, highly motivated football and serve a big wakeup call to a team still resting on its laurels.
Titans at Buccaneers
Vegas Line: Buccaneers -3
Lazy Line: Even………….Bet 1 unit on the Titans
The Titans underperformed my expectations last year. This week I’m betting that the QB position turns out to be much more productive than it was last year, when the mediocre Jake Locker was the only viable option and then got injured. The Lazy Line here rests on that leap of faith, but it’s buttressed by the public’s overinflated confidence in Lovie Smith, who moves out of his rebuilding year with the Bucs.