04 Oct NFL Week 4: Lazy Line Betting Selections
Lazy Line Picks
I enter week #4 with a perfect record and a $500 profit. As you can tell, I’ve been restricting my bets severely compared to the last 2 years (one profitable year and one losing year). Let’s see if the change in strategy produces 3 profitable (or perfect) weeks in a row.
I had no bets for week #3, so there’s no accounting to do. Here are the week #4 betting selections:
Texans at Falcons
Vegas Line: Falcons -6 points
Lazy Line: Falcons -10 points. Falcons are a 4-unit bet.
I love it when the Lazy Line points to a blowout in a game where I have to give less than a TD. The Texans don’t have an NFL-caliber QB. That’s where the trouble starts for them. And the ferocious front line of JJ Watt, Vince Wilfork and friends hasn’t quite jelled. Add a big home edge for the Falcons, an improved defense and a more balanced offense…and you can see the time of possession figures getting very out of whack, along with the score.
Lions at Seahawks
Vegas Line: Seahawks -9.5 points
Lazy Line: Seahawks -14 points. Seahawks are a 1-unit bet.
Everyone knows the Seattle home edge is worth 4 to 5 points. The difference between Russell Wilson at home and Matthew Stafford on the road is worth another 4 to 5 or 8. Give the Seahawks a few points for coaching, defense and special teams advantages…. You see where I’m going with this?
Season Totals (assuming $100 per unit):
2 plays, 2 wins. Plus 5 units. Profit $500