Let’s talk longshots. Mark Cramer, a master at picking longshots, once published a study that showed legitimate longshots (horses running at 8-1 or higher) finished 2nd twice as often as they won. On some days I’d swear that they run 2nd 10 times more often than they win. I...

Dortmund and the Curse of “Keen to Lead” In The Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby I coin the phrase keen to lead (KTL) to describe runners incapable of relaxing early. The concept expands the typical need to lead (NTL) designation to include horses positioned...